Power ranking: NFL’s 10 most overrated players in fantasy football this season

This is prime time for NFL players to gear up for the regular season, and the perfect time for fantasy football players to hone their strategy heading into the draft. We have a list of 10 players to avoid in fantasy football this season—you would be well served bypassing them in snake drafts and spending your auction budget elsewhere. All NFL statistics are from Football Reference.

The New England Patriots are in full rebuilding mode, as evidenced by their recent trade of star pass rusher Matthew Judon. Fox Sports notes that their over/under win total for the entire season is set to 4.5 victories. New England’s offense does not figure to be fantasy friendly whatsoever in 2024.

There’s a case to be made that Stevenson is going to soak up a ton of volume in an offense that is largely bereft of talent. However, the Patriots also needed all the help they could get last year, and it stifled Stevenson’s production. In 12 games, he averaged just 51 yards on the ground. He figures to face stacked boxes throughout the season, and won’t likely score many touchdowns.

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Running backs age awfully quickly in the NFL, and fantasy managers should be mindful of Jones’ 30^th birthday, which will come up this December. That isn’t to say he’s completely washed, and his relatively light usage in his first couple NFL seasons might add miles to his career now. Fantasy managers should still be wary.

While with the Green Bay Packers last year, Jones set a career low in yards per carry, and had his lowest catch total since 2018. Targets in the passing game with the Minnesota Vikings won’t be that plentiful as Sam Darnold looks to spread the ball around to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and eventually T.J. Hockenson. Fantasy managers can do much better than Jones.

Pickens might be one of the most naturally gifted wide receivers in the NFL, but his situation with the Pittsburgh Steelers lends itself to extreme caution. Pittsburgh hired Arthur Smith as their offensive coordinator, whose name has been run through the mud in recent years in fantasy, as SportsGrid has noted. Smith tends to deploy a run-heavy scheme, which would hurt Pickens’ ability to contribute.

There’s also a strong chance that Justin Fields takes over at quarterback for Russell Wilson at some point during the season. Fields was able to support a fantasy stud in 2023 in Chicago with D.J. Moore, but the combination of Fields’ inclination to run and Smith’s tendency to lean on the ground game has us bumping Pickens down our draft board significantly.

Pro Football Focus ranked New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones as amongst the worst starters in the NFL heading into this season. It’s an opinion shared by many, as the confidence that fans have in Jones to get the ball to his playmakers has eroded significantly. That doesn’t bode well for Nabers in 2024.

Nabers comes into the NFL with a lot of hype and excitement, which is warranted given his play at LSU. He could still be an asset in fantasy football, as the Giants don’t have a lot of other playmakers right now. It might be better to target Nabers one to two rounds later than he’s currently going in order to level-set the proper value.

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Collins had been a solid player in his first two NFL players, but turned into a star in 2023. He caught 80 passes for 1,297 yards and eight touchdowns last year. While it would be wonderful to predict an improvement in Collins’ statistics for 2024, the fact of the matter is that he’s likely to take a step back in fantasy this year.

The Houston Texans traded for wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who is going to soak up some of Collins’ targets from a year ago. The offense also has the emerging Tank Dell, who will be a factor through the air as well. FantasyPros lists Collins as one of the most overrated fantasy players in 2024, and we wholeheartedly agree.

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There were few players in the NFL or in fantasy who were more exciting than Achane in 2023. He was literally a threat to take the ball to the house every time he got a touch, and that potential remains in the same in 2024. However, the hype may have gone a bit too far for the Miami Dolphins running back.

Achane is ranked as a second round player by Yahoo in 12-team fantasy leagues, which is an awfully rich price to pay. Given his slight build and proclivity to pick up bumps and bruises, the Dolphins will be mindful of Achane’s touches. He’ll certainly have sensational spike weeks, but will also be a non-factor for stretches as well.

The Los Angeles Rams have held Williams in high regard since they drafted him in 2022, and he delivered in a monster way in 2023. As their bell cow running back, Williams ran for 1,144 yards and 12 touchdowns. Fantasy managers are hoping for more of the same in 2024, but it sounds like it might not happen that way.

Williams appeared in 82 percent of the Rams’ offensive snaps during the 12 games he played last year. Los Angeles head coach Sean McVay told FanSided that the team wants to “be smart” with Williams this year, so that he can be in top form for the playoffs. Fantasy managers would also be smart to knock Williams down a few picks on their draft boards as a result.

The Philadelphia Eagles offense figures to be even scarier on paper this season, having poached Barkley away from the rival New York Giants. For fantasy purposes, however, it’s crucial to keep in mind that Barkley is one of many in Philadelphia, rather than the whole show that he was in New York.

GiveMeSport thinks Barkley will be a massive bust in fantasy football this year, and we think there’s a good chance that happens. Given Jalen Hurts’ rushing ability, and the fact that receiving targets won’t be there for Barkley with A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith, it feels wise to look elsewhere at the end of the first round of fantasy drafts.

There isn’t much separating Gibbs from some of fantasy’s most acclaimed running backs, such as Christian McCaffery, Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall. However, he’s not likely to have the same type of role as that triumvirate, because the Detroit Lions appear to remain committed to involving David Montgomery early and often.

Gibbs is by far the most talented player in the backfield, but Montgomery proved that he’s extremely effective as part of a 1-2 punch with the Lions. It’s unlikely that Montgomery is phased out enough to give Gibbs RB1 overall upside. Think long and hard before you spend a first round pick on Gibbs during fantasy drafts.

Sports Illustrated believes that Wilson is the “ultimate fantasy breakout” player for the 2024 season. The problem is, similar stories were written in 2023 and 2022, and it has yet to happen. Most of it is due to the lack of competent quarterback play Wilson has had with the New York Jets, but Wilson is as risky as it gets in fantasy this year.

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It’s often said in fantasy circles that you can’t win your fantasy draft in the first two rounds, but you can certainly lose it. Betting on Aaron Rodgers’ health for a full season, which is what would be required for Wilson to break out, is a tall order. He’s being considered at the back end of the first round in some drafts, which is too rich for our blood.