NFC Championship Game: Division rivals battle to reach the Super Bowl

In recent times, the Philadelphia Eagles have become relatively used to deep playoff runs, with Sunday set to be the third NFC Championship game hosted in Philadelphia in seven years. For the Washington Commanders, this season has come out of nowhere, with a first-year coaching staff and rookie QB leading what has been a hapless franchise to a Championship game.

Per The Football Database, Washington and Philadelphia have met 180 times, with the overall record sitting at 85-90-5 in Washington’s favor. That includes their one previous playoff matchup, when Washington beat the Eagles 20-6 in January 1991.

The Eagles and Commanders split their regular season series 1-1, with both winning teams relying on fourth quarter scoring explosions to get the win. The second matchup, won by Washington saw Philly lose Jalen Hurts early to a concussion and rookie Jayden Daniels leading a game-winning drive in the closing moments for the Commanders.

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Both the Eagles and Commanders won the turnover battle in their divisional round victories, with Philly forcing two forced fumbles and Washington forcing five turnovers in total (4 INTs, 1 FF).

For the Eagles, forcing turnovers has been key to their defensive dominance, especially late in the year. Per NFL Network, they picked off 13 passes and forced 22 fumbles on the season, recovering 13, which suggests they actually got a little unlucky and could have recovered even more. Washington intercepted 7 passes and forced 16 fumbles, recovering 10.

The Commanders will be aiming to stop Saquon Barkley any way they can on Sunday, with the star running back accounting for 296 yards and four TDs on 55 carries. For the most part, however, Washington has been able to bottle Saquon up but have allowed explosive rushes. If they can stop those, they will put themselves in a great position to win.

For the Eagles, the main area of focus will be Jayden Daniels. The rookie out of LSU has looked spectacular all season long, and that continued in Washington’s upset of the Lions last weekend. Daniels accounted for 339 total yards and five TDs against the Eagles in December. If he does something similar on Sunday, it will be a difficult road to victory for Philadelphia.

Per SumerSports, the Commanders boasted one of the best offenses in football, per EPA/Play, ranking fourth. Defensively, things don’t look quite as bright, as they rank 16th. The Eagles, on the other hand, have been consistently excellent on both sides of the ball, ranking sixth offensively and second defensively.

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Advanced metrics are a great tool to learn more context about teams and matchups. However, on an individual game basis, they can sometimes mean very little. The Lions’ defense, for instance, ranked seventh in the NFL by EPA/Play, and the Commanders put up 45 points against them just a few days ago.

The Eagles have constructed arguably the most talented roster in the NFL under the guise of Howie Roseman. Everywhere you look there are superstar players, from Saquon Barkley, to the entire offensive line, to A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith. On the other side of the ball, Jalen Carter, Zack Baun and Darius Slay all stand out as huge names too. Sometimes all it takes is talent.

Both teams could be dealing with significant injuries on Sunday, with Washington losing starting guard Sam Cosmi to an ACL tear. Cosmi has played at a Pro-Bowl level this season and handled Jalen Carter well in the previous two matchups. The Eagles will be nervously waiting on news of Jalen Hurts’ status after he appeared to injure his knee. Quinyon Mitchell is also a doubt.

Both teams are known for their aggressive approach on fourth downs, with the Eagles relying on the infamous ‘Tush-Push’ to convert anything inside a yard or two. The Commanders under Dan Quinn have not been afraid to attempt even longer conversions, often sacrificing a makeable field goal to try for seven points. This could go a long way to winning, or losing, the game.

On paper, the Eagles should win this game. They have the more talented roster, with advantages at almost every important position. The key for the Commanders will be Jayden Daniels, which is a lot of pressure for a rookie. There is a reason no rookie has started a Super Bowl. Daniels will keep it close, but we’re going 21-30 Eagles.

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