MLB playoff preview: Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros

The American League playoff matchups are set. In one American League wild card series, the upstart Detroit Tigers will square off against the battle-tested Houston Astros. We’ll get ready for this exciting draw by analyzing this matchup from every angle, and will pick a winner. All statistics are sourced from Baseball Reference.

Detroit will start the three-game set with one of the best pitchers in MLB. Tarik Skubal had a special 2024 campaign, winning a pitcher’s version of the Triple Crown. He led the American League in wins, earned run average and strikeouts. He gives the Tigers a real chance to steal Game 1, but Sports Illustrated wonders how much of an impact Reece Olson or Keider Montero can make in the playoffs.

The Astros won’t blink heading into Game 1, as Framber Valdez has proven to be a legitimate ace when the biggest games are on tap. The Houston Chronicle notes that this will be Valdez’s 16^th career postseason start, so he’ll know what to expect heading in. The biggest question is whether or not Houston will give ageless wonder Justin Verlander a turn, or if they’ll want to save him for the American League Division Series.

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Skubal is as lethal as any pitching in MLB right now, but the overall depth of Houston’s rotation gives them the edge on paper.

Sports Illustrated has lauded the efforts of Tigers reliever Sean Guenther down the stretch of the season. They spoke about his ability as a lefty to get both left-handed hitters and right-handed hitters out. He’ll be an important player to focus on late in games, especially during critical at-bats taken by Astros sluggers Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker.

Astros closer Josh Hader had a rough go of it to begin the 2024 MLB season, but has looked more like the shutdown arm that baseball fans have been used to seeing. Additionally, Houston had the option of going to Ryan Pressly late in ballgames as well, who was the team’s closer in the previous three seasons.

Houston has arms that have succeeded on the big stage before. Additionally, depending on how their rotation shakes out, they might also have Ronel Blanco available out of the bullpen, who has had a strong season as a starter for the team. That might be too much for Detroit to overcome.

The Tigers are 31-17 since August 1, as StatMuse and many others have called out. With that said, their offense isn’t exactly a feared bunch. It may be somewhat surprising that Detroit was able to make the playoffs given that their on-base percentage ranked 29^th in MLB, ahead of only the historically-inept Chicago White Sox.

Meanwhile, Houston compiled the second most hits in baseball this season. It’s hard to find a true weak spot in their lineup, as nearly everyone has the potential to come through in a big moment. There are no easy outs, so Detroit’s pitching staff will have to go after everyone and hope for the best.

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The two lineups aren’t really comparable at this point in time. Detroit will just have to hope that Skubal can work his magic to shock Houston out of the gate.

The backdrop for this series is a fascinating reunion between Hinch and the club that he used to manage. Hinch was the Astros skipper when the team won the World Series in 2017. He was then unceremoniously dropped by the organization after MLB suspended him for the 2020 season due to his role in the cheating scandal that rocked the sport.

On the other hand, Espada is a first year manager who is tasked with keeping up the standard left by Hinch and former Astros manager Dusty Baker. He’s done well to navigate the team out of an early-season slump, but his decisions will be magnified during the postseason. He’s been with the Astros since 2018 as a bench coach, so he’s also been part of the successful run.

Hinch told Sports Illustrated in 2023 about the cheating scandal. “It was wrong, and it continues to be wrong, and we’ll always have this question around 2017. I also think you can say these guys are really good players. It’s a really good system there. It was built brilliantly.” We’ll give Hinch the nod in the managerial matchup, as he looks to upend the system he helped develop.

Vierling is a jack of all trades for the Tigers, as The Detroit News’ website has highlighted. They wrote that his versatility optimizes his value, which will continue to give Hinch the flexibility to mix and match his lineup as he sees fit. Detroit is hoping that his bat can take off, but he’s also an excellent outfield defender, as Sports Illustrated notes.

It’s far from Verlander’s first rodeo, as the 41 year-old is hoping to add potentially one last piece of hardware to his resume. He started 17 games for Houston this season, and pitched to an unsightly 5.48 earned run average. It’s not crazy to think he can turn back the clock and dial up a vintage performance, but it also might be unwise for Houston to fully lean on him in a big spot.

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The Tigers are an incredible story, and have done well to arrive in the MLB postseason ahead of schedule. However, Detroit’s lack of experience and superior opponent figures to be too steep of a mountain to claim to make it to the American League Division Series.