Is Phil Jackson's 40-20 rule the greatest predictor for who wins the NBA Championship?

40-20 rule
Important indicator
The exceptions
Theory by the best
Hard to find consistency
The teams this season
Boston Celtics (48-12)
On a roll
Oklahoma City Thunder (42-18)
Young core
Minnesota Timberwolves (42-19)
Defensive rating
Denver Nuggets (42-19)
Boston vs Denver?
Good chance at winning
So close
40-20 rule

According to ESPN, NBA Hall of Fame coach Phil Jackson presented a theory that you must win 40 games before you lose your 20th to be seen as an elite team in the NBA.

Important indicator

Although it's not a guarantee, 27 of the last 30 NBA champions had won their 40th game before losing their 20th in the regular season, showing how much of an important indicator it is for teams at the top of the conferences.

The exceptions

As reported by the Diario AS website, the only recent teams to win a championship without hitting 40 wins before 20 losses are the 2004 Detroit Pistons, 2006 Miami Heat, and 2021 Milwaukee Bucks.

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Theory by the best

The 40-20 rule isn't made up by a nobody. It's a theory created by the most successful NBA coach in history, winning 11 rings across spells with the Chicago Bulls and Los Angeles Lakers.

Hard to find consistency

With the elite-level quality spread across the NBA these days, it's becoming harder for teams to put together more consistent wins on a nightly basis.

The teams this season

Nevertheless, four teams in the NBA have solidified their spot in the 40-20 bracket, with three coming from the West and one team from the East, as reported by ESPN. Here are the teams!

Boston Celtics (48-12)

The Boston Celtics were comfortably the first team to reach the 40-20 bracket and are the overwhelming favorites to win their first NBA Championship since 2008.

On a roll

The NBA website states that the Celtics are on an eleven-game win streak and rank fifth in offensive and defensive rating.  Boston dismantled the Golden State Warriors by 52 points on Sunday, and Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown look to be at the peak of their powers.

Oklahoma City Thunder (42-18)

The Oklahoma City Thunder have climbed mountains above from last season, holding the top spot in the West currently after finishing with a 40-42 losing record last season.

Young core

The Thunder have spent years acquiring draft capital and funds to develop a young team, and this season has been the year it has come to fruition, with Shai Gilgeous Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Josh Giddey, and Jalen Williams all blossoming into superstars.

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Minnesota Timberwolves (42-19)

Like the Thunder, the Minnesota Timberwolves have become an elite team after a mediocre season last year, being knocked out of the playoffs in the first round, according to ESPN.

Defensive rating

As reported by Stat Muse, the Timberwolves have the best defensive rating in the NBA (108.4), thanks to Rudy Gobert and Karl Anthony Towns. Superstar Anthony Edwards has made another step up this season, averaging 26.3 points.

Denver Nuggets (42-19)

The Denver Nuggets looked to have potentially dropped off after winning the NBA Championship last season, but after six wins in a row and ruining LeBron James' party on Saturday night, the Nuggets are still an elite team looking for back-to-back titles.

Boston vs Denver?

With the inexperience of Minnesota and Oklahoma City, an NBA Finals matchup between the Boston Celtics and Denver Nuggets would fit Phil Jackson's 40-20 theory perfectly in 2024.

Good chance at winning

Although four teams made it into the 40-20 category, some were close, and still have an extremely good chance at winning the NBA Championship.

So close

According to the NBA website, from the East, the Milwaukee Bucks have a record of 40-21 and the Cleveland Cavaliers have a record of 39-21. From the West, the newly rejuvenated LA Clippers have a record of 39 wins and 20 losses. All have a chance of ruining Jackson's theory.

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