NBA award season: Candidates and winner predictions

We’ll pivot from the NBA’s team-first mentality to focus on individual players, and how they stack up for the top honors in the NBA for the 2023-2024 season. Each award will have three candidates and a predicted winner. Awards are actually voted on by a panel of NBA media members, according to the NBA’s website. All statistics are sourced from Basketball Reference.

We’ll start with the most prestigious award in the NBA. The top three candidates we’ll consider here are Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Nikola Jokic.

Doncic led the NBA in scoring during the season, and it wasn’t close. That’s in addition to being second in assists per game, proving once again that he’s the engine that makes the Dallas Mavericks go. Dallas has played well down the stretch, leading the Dallas News to wonder whether this late push is enough for Doncic to warrant serious MVP consideration.

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Gilgeous-Alexander is the unquestioned ringleader of an Oklahoma City Thunder team that has vied for Western Conference supremacy, perhaps a little earlier than anyone expected. Forbes has talked about the smooth moves the guard deploys to get clean looks at the basket. He’s also taken a leap in the steals department, as opposing ballhandlers can’t afford to fall asleep around him.

In a poll before the 2023-2024 season began, NBA GM’s tabbed Jokic as the best player in the league in several categories. Sports Illustrated wrote that they believed he would win MVP this year, and also called him the best passer and player with the highest hoops IQ. The Denver Nuggets center has had another banner season, and continues to seem un-guardable.

While Doncic is making a strong late charge, and Gilgeous-Alexander’s body of work is compelling, it would be a surprise if anyone other than Jokic took home the award this season.

Next, we’ll take a look at which first-year player had the best season. The top three candidates we’ll consider here are Brandon Miller, Chet Holmgren and Victor Wembanyama.

Many questioned the Charlotte Hornets’ decision to select Miller over Scoot Henderson in the 2023 NBA Draft, but Sporting News and others believe they have been proven right. According to Sports Illustrated, Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra called Miller a “big-time talent,” and it’s easy to see why.

Even though the 2023-2024 campaign wasn’t technically Holmgren’s first season with an NBA team, it is the first campaign that he’s played in. Sporting News explained this is the reason why the Oklahoma City Thunder big man is eligible for Rookie of the Year. Holmgren has silenced doubters, providing a shot-blocking paint presence and the ability to stretch the floor on offense.

It feels like Wembanyama is just scratching the surface of his other worldly potential. ClutchPoints highlighted that Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green said that players won’t be able to contain the San Antonio Spurs rookie for much longer. His praying-mantis like versatility and length have made him truly unique to watch.

It should come down to a pretty close vote between Holmgren and Wembanyama. Holmgren supporters will point to his impact on one of the league’s best teams, while Wembanyama enthusiasts will highlight how he has already changed the game. Wembanyama figures to have the slight edge.

It’s time to ascertain which players were the most valuable on the defensive end of the floor. The top three candidates we’ll consider are Anthony Davis, Victor Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert.

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Davis has been on the NBA’s All-Defensive Team four times, but none of those appearances have translated into a Defensive Player of the Year victory. For the first time in several years, the Los Angeles Lakers big man has stayed healthy throughout the course of the season. The Los Angeles Times highlighted why Davis is comfortable guarding any player on the floor.

Wembanyama finds himself in the mix for another award. He’s leading the NBA in blocks per game by a mile, and might be at the top of that category for the next decade. It’s going to be interesting to see if voters are willing to give Wembanyama two major awards this season, considering that the Spurs have been one of the worst teams in the league this season.

If there was any lingering doubt about Gobert’s fit next to Karl-Anthony Towns with the Minnesota Timberwolves, those concerns have vanished. Towns called Gobert “the best defensive player in the NBA,” according to a Minneapolis Star Tribune article. Sports Illustrated noted his defensive rating is the best in the league.

There might be hesitation to give Wembanyama Rookie of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year, and voters might deduce that Wembanyama will win DPOY as soon as next year, anyway. Gobert is a much deserving candidate, despite the fascination with the San Antonio rookie.

The most impactful bench player in the NBA is given Sixth Man of the Year honors. We’ll consider the candidacies of Norman Powell, Naz Reid and Malik Monk.

The Los Angeles Times delved into Powell’s candidacy to win Sixth Man of the Year. Current TNT analyst and former Sixth Man of the Year award winner Jamal Crawford said of Powell “when he brings that punch, it can get everybody else on track.” Powell had to take on greater responsibility in the second half of the season with Russell Westbrook nursing a hand injury.

In December 2023, Luka Doncic told Sports Illustrated that the Minnesota Timberwolves big man was “an amazing player,” which is high praise for a reserve. The Minnesota Star Tribune believes in Reid’s case as the best bench player in the league. Reid has had to step into the starting lineup with the knee injury suffered by Karl-Anthony Towns.

It’s going to be interesting to see if Monk’s late-season absence due to a knee injury will cost him this award. Fox Sports reported that he was the favorite to take honors home, but also stated that he won’t play for the remainder of the regular season. That would lock Monk’s scoring average at just over 15 points per game in 2023-2024.

This is a pretty tightly contested race, and Monk’s resume might fade into the background when media members are ready to cast their votes. Reid has been talked up as the best non-starting player in the NBA this season, and has been a huge reason why the Timberwolves find themselves near the top of the Western Conference standings.

It’s all about getting better from one season to the next. The NBA recognizes this increase in performance with the Most Improved Player award. We’ll consider Jalen Williams, Coby White and Tyrese Maxey for this honor.

On his various podcasting appearances, J.J. Redick has sung Williams’ praises as an underrated reason why Oklahoma City has a chance to win a title. Yahoo Sports picked up on Redick’s label for Williams as a star. In just his second season, Williams has shown that he’s emerging as a legitimate option.

Sometimes NBA players just need an opportunity to showcase how much they’ve improved, and White has gotten that chance with the Chicago Bulls this year. Lonzo Ball has not played all season, which has thrust White into an important lead-guard role for the team. He’s averaged career highs in points, rebounds and assists this season.

The Philadelphia 76ers gave Maxey the keys to the car this season, and they are thrilled with the way he’s driven it. The young guard made his first All-Star team this season, and showed that he can handle the added responsibility bestowed upon him. Head coach Nick Nurse spoke about multiple ways Maxey has improved this year.

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The prediction is that this will come down to either Williams or Maxey. Maxey’s magnetic personality on the floor is hard to ignore, but Williams’ versatile play is starting to get noteworthy praise. Maxey might have the slimmest of edges in this race.