AFC Championship Game: Can the Bills stop the Chiefs?

The AFC Championship is set, with the Buffalo Bills heading to Kansas City to take on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. The Chiefs are looking to reach yet another Super Bowl and become the first team in NFL history to win three rings in a row.

For the Bills, it’s a chance to reach their first Super Bowl since 1994. Despite their recent regular season dominance, the Bills have struggled to translate that into post-season success.

Per ESPN, the Bills and Chiefs have met eight previous times with Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes as the starting quarterbacks, and have split the series 4-4. Now, on the biggest stage possible, there is a chance to gain an upper hand in the rivalry.

Want to see more like this? Follow us here for daily sports news, profiles and analysis!

The Bills handed the Chiefs one of just two regular season losses in the 2024 season, and the only one that involved the majority of their starters. Josh Allen accounted for two total touchdowns as the Bills moved the ball with relative ease against the Chiefs’ defense.

Early in the season, Patrick Mahomes was throwing uncharacteristic interceptions on passes he would usually complete. That included two picks against Buffalo. Since then, he has managed to avoid throwing a single interception, per ESPN.

The Bills will need to focus on stopping Travis Kelce if they want to win this game, with the future Hall of Famer running rampant against the Texans in the divisional round. Despite signing veteran receivers like Hollywood Brown and DeAndre Hopkins and drafting Xavier Worthy in the first round, the Chiefs still funnelled the passing game through their tight end.

For Kansas City, stopping Josh Allen’s running game will be all important. While Allen can beat you with his arm, his legs have become a key part of Buffalo’s offense in recent times. Against the Chiefs in November, Allen rushed for 55 yards and a score on 12 carries. No other Bill carried it more than nine times.

While advanced statistics aren’t everything in football, they do offer good insight, so we are going to take a look at how the teams compare. Over the course of the 2024 regular season, the Bills ranked second in offensive EPA/Play and 13th defensively. In contrast, the Chiefs were ranked 11th and 17th.

Want to see more like this? Follow us here for daily sports news, profiles and analysis!

Of course, statistics like this don’t mean too much in an individual game, it does suggest the biggest differential between the teams comes when the Bills offense is on the field. Not only did they rank second in EPA/Play, they also ranked second, just behind the Lions, in drives that ended in a score.

Despite being inconsistent all regular season, the Chiefs’ pass rush came to play against the Texans in the divisional round, accounting for either sacks. George Karlaftis got to C.J. Stroud three times himself. If they come out firing on Sunday, Josh Allen’s effectiveness could be limited.

If the Bills offense starts to fire, the Chiefs will have to respond. Kansas City has only scored 30 or more points once this season, in week eight against the Bucs, and that included OT. The Bills, on the other hand, reached the same mark 13 times. If this becomes a shootout, we can only see one winner.

We all know Patrick Mahomes is one of the best quarterbacks to ever pick up a football, and his usually saves his best performances for the biggest moments. As Seth Walder writes for ESPN, “the world has seen Mahomes come up big too many times to assume he won't again.”

Honestly, this game is about as difficult to call as it gets. Every statistical measure suggests the Bills should win, with the significantly better offense, and better defense, it shouldn’t be close. The Chiefs, on the other hand, play their best football in January and February and know how to get it done when it matters. For that reason, we’re going 24-28 Chiefs.

Want to see more like this? Follow us here for daily sports news, profiles and analysis!