NFL Power Rankings ahead of the Division Round: Elite Eight

We are now only a few days out from the NFL divisional round, and we couldn't be more excited. Instead of doing a full power rankings, we have decided to just rank the teams that played in the wild card round based on how we think they played during the season, their playoff game, and the optimism around their future.

The Steelers are stuck in a perpetual cycle of good but not close to Super Bowl contention. The defense is a talented group, but we could all see T.J. Watt wear down over the season. We're not sure where this team goes next, but they need to change something, could it be the end of Mike Tomlin's tenure in Pittsburgh?

The Steelers defense was good in 2024, but not spectacular, finishing 8th in DVOA per FTN Fantasy and 10th in EPA/Play per SumerSports. When you're relying on that side of the ball to win you games, you need more. Offensively, there is a severe lack of talent at the skill positions. Najee Harris is replacement level, and you would struggle to name a receiver not called Pickens.

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The Broncos got a dose of reality against the Bills on Sunday. After a strong start, the difference between Denver and a true Super Bowl contender became clear. Bo Nix has the chance to become a good starting QB in the NFL and will have learned a lot in his rookie year, so there is no need to despair.

The Broncos simply didn’t have an answer for Josh Allen on the day. Not many teams do in fairness. Building a team defense-first is always risky if you can’t consistently stop the opposition from scoring. Building up the inconsistent run game will go a long way to easing pressure on Bo Nix and this talented defense.

The Packers should have competed with the Eagles, but from the first play of the game were under pressure and couldn’t respond. Jordan Love threw three bad picks and the defense was slowly worn down. The vibes don’t seem all that great either based on the post-game interviews we saw from Packers players.

Despite not being a blowout on the scoreboard, this game was never really close. Our only defense for the Packers is they suffered an incredible number of injuries during the game, which made any chance of a comeback nearly impossible. There was a lot of expectation ahead of the season for this team, and they never quite lived up to that standard.

Justin Herbert will be kicking himself for his performance against the Texans, as the Chargers QB threw for four picks in the game, more than he threw in the entirety of the regular season. The Chargers have a great foundation to build on over the next few years, and we have optimism they will be a contender soon, it just didn’t work out on Saturday.

It’s hard not to look at Herbert as the main issue behind this loss. It’s fair to argue, however, that the Chargers’ defense failed at the worst possible moment. All season, the game plan has been to play mistake-free football and let the running game grind teams down. It’s difficult to suddenly be chasing a game in the playoffs.

It’s tough not to look at this as a missed opportunity for the Bucs who had chances to win this game before player and coaching mistakes gave it to Washington. If Liam Coen leaves in the offseason, it will be interesting to watch if Baker Mayfield can continue his stellar play. A brutal loss for a team that we thought could’ve caused an upset or two.

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Washington dominated the time of possession on the day, 35:26 to 24:34 as the Bucs struggled to stop the Commanders from marching up and down the field. Still they were able to keep them to 23 points which shows how tight this game was. It was all in the fine margins for the Bucs who will be disappointed by the loss.

In the 2022 and 2024 seasons combined, the Vikings had 27 combined regular season wins and zero wins in the playoffs. It’s a strange issue that Kevin O’Connell will need to overcome at some point. Sam Darnold played good football all season only to crumble in the two biggest games of the year.

Sam Darnold throwing a terrible interception and fumbling the ball into Jared Verse’s hands for a TD the other way were the two picking turning points. Still, the ease with which Brian Flores’ defense was cut apart early in the game had the Vikings on the back foot early, and they could never counter.

The Texans boast the sixth-best defense by EPA/Play per SumerSports, but only the 24th-best offense by the same metric. While it’s possible to win a Super Bowl off the back of a talented defense, we aren’t sure this one is quite at that level. C.J. Stroud is going to need to play his best football to beat the Chiefs this weekend.

After a tough start to the game, the Texans jumped ahead in the second quarter and cruised to victory in an impressive performance. Demeco Ryans is an excellent defensive mind who will cook up some interesting looks for the Chiefs on Saturday, just as he did against the Chargers.

The Rams started the game well, driving against the vaunted Vikings’ defense with ease. After that, things weren’t quite as easy offensively, but they did mostly shutdown a Minnesota offense that has played well all year. Given the circumstances of the week just gone, this was a great performance, just one we aren’t sure if they can replicate.

Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford tore the Vikings’ defense apart, in the first half especially, and this young Rams defense gave up almost nothing. Despite their youth, this team has enough experience playoff veterans to lead them through big games like this, and ultimately, that’s what they did.

Jayden Daniels is a stud and has papered over some cracks in this roster in his rookie season. We just don’t trust this defense against the elite offenses left in the playoffs. Still, their aggressiveness and overall play under Dan Quinn has been amazing to watch and if they don’t get any deeper into the playoffs this season, they will be back time and time again.

The Bucs mostly shut down what has been an incredibly efficient run game which put the game in Jayden Daniels’ hands and he responded impressively. It’s worth noting the defense played above itself against an offense that has being playing great football lately, too. This is a good team, there are just better ones out there.

There are five teams left that we think have a realistic chance to win the Super Bowl, and the Ravens are one of them. Lamar Jackson is one of the greats of the modern game, and very few teams have worked out how to stop Derrick Henry this year. Their performance against the Steelers was impressive, but the Bills will be a much bigger test.

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The Ravens were at a big talent advantage over the Steelers and it showed. That’s not to take anything away from their performance, more to highlight just how good this team is. Lamar Jackson can turn any play into a touchdown, as can Derrick Henry. We can’t wait for their game against the Bills.

Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense has some improving to do ahead of their divisional round matchup against the Rams, but there look to be some easy fixes. Saquon Barkley rushed for 255 yards against the Rams during the regular season, but we can’t expect similar results this time out, given LA’s improvement.

Vic Fangio and this defense is arguably the story of the season. They are ranked number one in DVOA per FTN Fantasy and one in total defense, and it showed on Sunday against a good Packers offense. The loss of Nakobe Dean is significant, but our expectation is they will find a way to replace him.

Utter dominance from the Bills against the Broncos, putting up 31 points with 471 total yards, 210 of which came on the ground. Per Yahoo Sports, Buffalo has been averaging 161.3 per game since their bye week, which is seven games. If they can have that kind of success against the Ravens, they will win.

After giving up an easy TD early, the Bills’s defense locked in and didn’t concede another point. Elsewhere, Josh Allen continued his remarkable season creating touchdowns out of nothing and playing smart, efficient football when needed, too. This team has the look and feel of a Super Bowl winner.

The Lions got to sit back and relax as the other six NFC teams knocked lumps out of each other. Now, they will host the Commanders in what could be a difficult matchup given how good Jayden Daniels and that offense is. They should win, but nothing is guaranteed in this league.

Detroit has home-field advantage and recent playoff experience, which suggests they should beat the Commanders this weekend, setting up a NFC Championship game against the Eagles or Rams. Is this their year?

As you may have noticed, we like our advanced metrics here, but sometimes, you have to trust your gut. The Chiefs’ offense is 11th in EPA/Play and the defense is 17th, per SumerSports. This isn’t a great team, yet they went 15-2 (15-1 when it counted) and we just know they will turn it on when they host the Texans next week.

We’ve been saying all season it’s hard to figure this Chiefs team out given their on-field performances, but we just have a feeling they may be lifting the Lombardi Trophy again in a few weeks time. We can’t bring ourselves to count out Patrick Mahomes.

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