NFL Preseason Power Rankings - A look back at our rankings before the 2023 season

Back in July 2023, we wrote our preseason power rankings, now it's time to take a look back and see how wrong we were. With that being said, let's compare our preseason rank to our final power rankings following week 18 (not after the playoffs), we'll include a quote from our initial rankings for full accountability.

"The Cardinals are in rough shape this year...If they win more than four games it will be a surprise." The Cardinals finished 4-13 so this was a pretty good prediction for the season, they were slightly better than we expected, however, as they often remained competitive despite a weak roster. 

Final ranking: 29 

"The Rams went all in to win one Super Bowl and are now seemingly committed to a full rebuild, so don’t expect much." Yikes, we were way off base here and probably learned a lesson to never underestimate Sean McVay and Matt Stafford. The Rams finished 10-7 and nearly upset the Lions in the playoffs.

Final rank: 9 (just the 22 spots off...)

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"The Texans could well surprise this season under new head coach DeMecod Ryans. The roster is thin almost everywhere so expect this to be a rebuilding year." We hedged a little here as we could see potential in Ryans as a coach and liked C.J. Stroud in the draft but this seemed too big a turnaround to happen in one year, instead they made the AFC Divisional round.

Final rank: 10

"The roster is talented elsewhere but without a QB, it’s difficult to see them winning too many games." The Bucs made the playoffs and were able to beat the struggling Eagles in their Wildcard matchup, which was an impressive season for a team we vastly underestimated at the beginning of the year. Baker Mayfield played well throughout the season, even if he isn't elite, he can keep teams in games.

Final rank: 18

"New head coach Shane Steichen is a talented play-caller who could get the ex-Gator [Anthony Richardson] firing early in which case they could cause some upsets, but we’ll have to see it first." The Colts were a difficult team to read all offseason with a new head coach and QB, so perhaps we were a little cautious with our ranking.

Final rank: 15

"Justin Fields took a big leap in 2022, but he still has a long way to go to prove himself as an NFL passer." The Bears ended 7-10, which is a win or two more than we expected but overall we weren't far off here. Fields certainly showed signs of improvement, but with the Bears debating whether to keep him or draft his replacement, he possibly didn't show quite enough.

Final rank: 22

"A franchise seemingly desperate to stay in QB purgatory as they move on from Derek Carr and pick up Jimmy Garoppolo in free agency." The Raiders actually benched Garoppolo in favor of rookie Aiden O'Connell, they also fired head coach Josh McDaniels midseason and still ended up with eight wins. We got this one just about right.

Final rank: 23

"The Commanders are another team who haven’t been competing for much for a long time and they probably won’t be in 2023 either." The first team we actually overrated in preseason as the Commanders collapsed down the stretch, ending the season 4-13 and on the hunt for a franchise quarterback.

Final rank: 30

"They are still some way from being a talented roster and will need another year or two, and for Desmond Ridder to come good." We nailed this one, the Falcons were mediocre all year and fired Arthur Smith once the season wrapped up. Desmond Ridder showed there was a lot of work to do, leaving Atlanta in a difficult spot at quarterback.

Final rank: 24 (as we said, we nailed this one)

"Mike Vrabel is too competitive to do anything other than try to win and in a weak division, they could surprise a few teams, finishing around .500." The Titans offered very little to get excited about in 2023, costing Mike Vrabel his job. Finishing around .500 was a pipe dream for this team.

Final rank: 25

"The Browns should be a solid enough team in 2023, but their ceiling is entirely dependent on how well Deshaun Watson plays." Way off base here. We severely underestimated Jim Schwartz's defense who kept the Browns competitive all year as they cycled through various options at quarterback. It was Joe Flacco who really unlocked the Browns' passing game even if he came unstuck in the playoffs.

Final rank: 6

"If the Patriots struggle again this year, could we see they end of Bill Belichick’s reign?" The Boston Herald described the 2023 Pats as, "a bad team undone by poor roster construction, some internal dysfunction and downright terrible quarterback play." They certainly didn't hold back, and we completely agree with them. All good things must end, including Belichick's time as the Patriots head coach.

Final rank: 31

"The Saints were a 7-10 team last year, and it looks as though they could well finish with a similar record in 2023." Not too far off as the Saints ended 9-8, just missing out on the playoffs. We were critical of the move to get Derek Carr, and even though he looked better than we expected, his overall play did little to change our perception that he is nothing more than an above-average QB.

Final rank: 20

"Jordan Love has had his chance to sit and learn behind one of the all-time greats so should have a leg up on other first-time starters across the league. If the offense clicks, the Packers could be a very good team in 2023." We had some optimism for the Packers, but we certainly didn't see them going toe-to-toe with the 49ers in the playoffs having demolished the Cowboys a round earlier.

Final rank: 16

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"With Sean Payton now at the helm, the Broncos could quickly turn around a disastrous 2022, but if Russell Wilson can’t return to form, then this could well be a long year for Broncos fans." Even now we still don't really know what to think of the Broncos' season, they won some games and certainly improved, but Payton froze out Wilson late in the year leaving them in flux at quarterback.

Final rank: 17

"With experienced head coach Frank Reich taking charge, we could see the Panthers take a big leap in 2023." Swing and a miss here as the Panthers bottomed out in 2023, going 2-15 as comfortably the worst team in the league. Cat Scratch Reader for SB Nation puts it well, "There weren’t many positives to take away from a disastrous season."

Final rank: 32

"If he [Kenny Picket] takes a big step forward in year two, the Steelers could be very competitive. One thing is for sure, Mike Tomlin will continue to be one of the very best coaches in the league." The Steelers' 2023 season went largely as expected as they remained competitive and Mike Tomlin dragged them to the playoffs despite a lack of offensive talent, we got this one pretty much spot on.

Final rank: 12

"Unfortunately, they can expect a regression to the mean in 2023 so double-digit wins could be a stretch, but they are still a good team." A slight overestimation here as the Vikings limped to 7-10 for the year, although that record is caveated by Kirk Cousins' injury early in the year. 

Final rank: 21

"If they can take another step in 2023 they will be in playoff contention again." The Giants ended the season as one of the worst teams in the NFL showing perhaps 2022 was an aberration for a team with major issues. The Giants' offensive line gave up 85 sacks on the year, the second-most in history, per Giants Country, making any improvements almost impossible.

Final rank: 28

"The Jags look like a serious team for the first time in a long time under the coaching of Doug Pederson [in 2022]." What a strange year for the Jags, who at one point had a 99% chance of making the playoffs, per ESPN, and somehow fumbled it away, can we call them a serious team after a collapse like that?

Final rank: 13

"Tua Tagovailoa is limited in what he can offer and has dealt with recurring concussion issues, this could be the one area in which they are held back." Tua was able to avoid injuries in 2023, to the relief of everyone watching, but his play was unconvincing at times even if the statistics look great overall.

Final rank: 7

"This could be a huge overestimation of the Lions, but after finishing the 2022 season with one of the most exciting offenses in the league, the Lions have a real chance to make a run." We were cautious about overrating the Lions heading into the season, in the end we underrated them as they made the NFC Championship game (and should've won it). 

Final rank: 5

"Pete Carroll was able to get Geno Smith playing like a stud at quarterback and with rookies dominating across the board, they became a nightmare team to face." Another ranking we got slightly wrong as we failed to account for some expected regression. Geno Smith is not the longterm answer at QB, that much is certain, and Pete Carroll lost his job after a few stagnant years.

Final rank: 14

"With the addition of Aaron Rodgers, their offense should take a big step forward, and if their defense can play at the same standards as last season, they could be a real threat." Losing Rodgers after just four snaps was always going to be difficult to overcome, but the Jets handling of the QB room after that was embarrassing, tough to predict, tougher to watch.

Final rank: 26

"But with additions on the offensive side of the ball, the Chargers will be looking to go even further in 2023." Oh boy, another huge miss from us here as the Chargers managed only five wins in 2023. Justin Herbert is still an elite quarterback but structurally this team failed almost everywhere else. 

Final rank: 27

"With an absolutely stacked roster on both sides of the ball, the only thing that could hold them back is Mike McCarthy coaching like it’s 2006 again." The Cowboys lost 48-32 against the Packers in Dallas during the Wildcard weekend, a remarkably bad result even for a team with a history of bad results. We had this one about right.

Final rank: 4

"The hiring of ex-University of Georgia offensive coordinator Todd Monken to run their offense should see immediate improvement and the defense remains an incredibly talented unit, especially with Roquan Smith patrolling the middle of the field for all 17 games." Pretty much spot on analysis even if we had the Ravens a little lower in our rankings than we should've.

Final rank: 1

"The Bills are perhaps not quite as loaded as they were in previous seasons but with cany additions like Dalton Kincaid and Leonard Floyd, they are still a real threat." A brutal playoff loss to the Chiefs shouldn't discount what was ultimately a good season for the Bills who struggled early but were able to rally around Josh Allen late in the year to win the AFC East.

Final rank: 3

"With Kyle Shanahan in charge, it rarely matters [who's playing quarterback]. This is a very, very good team once again." The Niners made the Super Bowl and looked like one of the best teams in the NFL all year. Brock Purdy played at a high level, even if the calls to anoint him as the next Joe Montana are a little premature, I think our preseason ranking was pretty fair.

Final rank: 2

"The only team that is seemingly capable of slowing down Patrick Mahomes, this is a squad ready to lift the Lombardi." A strange year for the Bengals makes it tough to compare what happened with what we were predicting. Joe Burrow started the season injured, got healthy and looked as good as anyone before getting injured again and missing the end of the season. 

Final rank: 19

"They have been able to reload through an excellent draft class so don’t be surprised to see Jalen Hurts singing ‘Fly Eagles, Fly’ whilst hoisting the NFC trophy once again." Well, not quite. If we had revisited these rankings after week 12, we would have looked like geniuses, as it happened the Eagles collapsed going 1-5 to end the regular season.

Final rank: 11

"There really doesn’t need to be too much analysis on the Chiefs, they have a super-human at quarterback in Patrick Mahomes, one of the very best coaches in NFL history in Andy Reid, and a defense that is seemingly always good enough when required. Don’t be surprised to see them go back-to-back." Well here we are, with the Chiefs potentially winning a second Super Bowl in two years.

Final rank: 8 (sorry Chiefs fans, we won't underestimate you again.)

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