Chiefs vs 49ers: How Super Bowl LIV will shape Super Bowl LVIII

It was just over four years ago that the Kansas City Chiefs pulled off an incredible fourth-quarter comeback to overcome the San Francisco 49ers. Now, they meet again in the Big Game, both teams look a little different, but some of the main characters remain, so let’s take a look back to 2020 and see what we can learn before Sunday night’s matchup.

Super Bowl LIV saw the 12-4 Kansas City Chiefs face off against the 13-3 San Francisco 49ers, a matchup that saw the consensus top two teams in the NFL face off to win the Lombardi Trophy. It saw the veteran offensive genius Andy Reid take on the up-and-comer Kyle Shanahan in what proved to be a truly epic encounter.

Both teams were offensively minded, with stacked rosters on that side of the ball. The Chiefs boasted Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Patrick Mahomes, the triumvirate on which KC’s dominance had been based. The Niners were more reliant on scheme, with Jimmy Garoppolo dishing passes to Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Kyle Juszczyk, and Emmanuel Sanders.

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The Chiefs had faced five decades of misery since their last Super Bowl win as they entered the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, but as The Kansas City Star puts it: “ He [Mahomes] did not seem daunted. He never seems daunted.” This was Patrick Mahomes before he became inevitable, before he became the Tom Brady of his generation, yet he stared history in the face and refused to buckle.

“The 49ers threw the first punch,” per CNBC, a succinct way to put it as Deebo Samuel’s end around gained 32 yards en route to an early Niners field goal. A play the Niners would lean on as they looked to attack the edges of the Chiefs' defense.

The Chiefs responded with a touchdown drive, with Mahomes diving in for a one-yard TD at the end of the first quarter. It would be another two quarters before the Chiefs got in the end zone again.

Patrick Mahomes had taken the league by storm during his early career, but he was off for most of Super Bowl LIV, he missed passes, he threw picks, and looked, frankly, like the second-best QB on the field for most of the night. The KC Star explains it well, “watching Mahomes as a mediocre quarterback was weird, like your favorite band playing all the wrong notes.”

On the other side of the ball, the Niners’ defense was relentless, led by Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, Fred Warner, and Richard Sherman, there was elite talent at every level of their defense. For much of the game, it looked like it would be too much for the Chiefs to handle.

The teams entered the half tied 10-10, but the Niners would have been the happier of the two teams. Their misdirection-based running game was working, and Jimmy Garoppolo, much-maligned in NFL circles finished the first two quarters with a 92.8 quarterback rating after completing 9 of 11 passes for one touchdown and one interception,” per CNBC.

The Niners were at their best in the third quarter, hitting a 42-yard field goal from Robbie Gould and running in a TD from a yard out to put themselves up by 10. Mahomes on the other hand seemed to be shrinking on the biggest stage, throwing, “the worst single throw of his career,” per The KC Star, as he was picked off by Fred Warner.

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Early in the fourth quarter, Mahomes threw another interception, this one more forgivable, but still a throw he usually avoids. Despite this, Mahomes refused to crumble, telling teammates, “It’s going to happen, man. I can feel it,” per Tyreek Hill speaking to the KC Star.

Then the Mahomes we have come to know appeared, throwing dimes up and down the field, driving the Chiefs to two scores, putting them up 24-10 with just 2.44 seconds left. Throughout the fourth quarter, the Chiefs' defense dominated, forcing punts and holding the Niners to zero points.

With just over a minute left, the Niners were stopped on fourth down allowing the Chiefs to take over on downs. A 38-yard run by Damien Williams, “sealed the deal”, as CNBC puts it and allowed Kansas City to revel in the win.

Sometimes players are just too good that even when it seems like all is lost they can overcome and find a way to win. Patrick Mahomes is just that, despite a previously all-conquering Niners defense and playing awful football for three quarters, Mahomes showed exactly why he is as good as anyone to ever lace up their cleats.

Now we have the rematch, rather than Jimmy Garoppolo on the opposing sideline, the Chiefs will have to face off against Mr. Irrelevant himself, Brock Purdy. Purdy has comfortably the best supporting cast in football on his side, Super Bowl LIV veterans Deebo Samuel, Kyle Juszczyk, and George Kittle are joined by Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk making the Niners offense near unstoppable.

The Chiefs have taken a different strategy, letting Tyreek Hill leave in a trade and signing a hodge-podge of lesser talents to make up their receiving corps. Old Reliable Travis Kelce is playing his best football of the year in the postseason while Isiah Pacheco, who, “doesn’t just run hard; he runs through people,” according to Mirin Fader of The Ringer, has become a bell cow back in his young NFL career.

Kyle Shanahan is regarded as one of the best in the business at designing offensive schemes, his system has become pervasive across the NFL as his disciples spread the word throughout the league. Lining up across from him is Steve Spagnuolo, who since arriving in KC has, “opened his playbook and showed just how good of a defensive mind he really is,” per North Jersey.

Both KC and the Niners boast elite defenses, finishing second and third respectively in Pro Football Reference’s total defense rankings, and seventh and fourth in DVOA, per FTN Fantasy. The Chiefs’ secondary featuring Trent McDuffie and L'Jarius Sneed is as formidable as any, whilst the Niners pass rush, with Nick Bosa, Chase Young, Javon Hargrave, and Arik Armstead is as good as any.

Ultimately, this game is going to be decided by the offenses, despite elite defensive talent, it is nigh-on impossible to stop the Niners or Mahomes, as Ben Arthur of Fox Sports writes, “it wouldn't surprise me if their [49ers] offense was able to move the ball effectively against an elite Chiefs defense. But I just can't count out Patrick Mahomes rising to the occasion on the biggest stage.”

The NFL is one of the few leagues where the most important players on the field will never cross paths during the game. In this instance, there is Patrick Mahomes, the first-round pick with two Super Bowl rings already facing off against Brock Purdy, picked 262nd in 2022 and only given an opportunity due to multiple injuries ahead of him. Can Purdy keep his head in the biggest game of his life?

For most of the season, we have been writing the Chiefs were ready to get on a roll and make it to another Super Bowl, and we aren’t ready to stop believing in them yet. The Niners are a great team that could easily win their sixth Super Bowl title, but so far no one has found a way to stop Mahomes and we can’t see it happening on Sunday either. Chiefs 31 - 21 49ers.

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