Grading rookie seasons for every QB who went first overall in the NFL Draft since 2000

NFL teams aren’t shy about selecting quarterbacks first overall in the NFL Draft. It’s happened 17 times since the turn of the century, and The Athletic feels strongly about it happening again in the 2024 NFL Draft. We’ll take a look back at the rookie campaigns for each passer selected at the top of the draft since 2000, and assign them a grade. Statistics are sourced from Football Reference.

There’s only one way to go from here. Pro Football focus called Young’s first NFL campaign “disastrous”, while Yahoo Sports called it “miserable.” Young failed to show any of the escape-ability or playmaking penchant he had at the University of Alabama. To make matters worse, second overall pick C.J. Stroud flourished as a rookie quarterback and won Rookie of the Year.

Lawrence also had an abominable first season in the NFL, but he had some difficult circumstances to navigate. The Jaguars nearly mutinied against head coach Urban Meyer. The Athletic reported that players, coaches and staff all thought Meyer crossed the line with his brazen approach. Lawrence has overcome that slow start to become a solid NFL quarterback.

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Burrow took command of the Bengals franchise since he was taken first overall in the 2020 draft. He had a solid rookie year, but it was cut short due to an ACL injury suffered in November 2020. Sports Illustrated wrote that Burrow was the favorite for Rookie of the Year, but the fact that he didn’t finish out the season drops his grade a little bit for this exercise.

The Cardinals went all-in on Murray in 2019, moving off of a top-10 pick in 2018 to do so. With Josh Rosen out of town, Murray had free rein to take over the offense. He was named Rookie of the Year, showing dynamic athleticism by extending plays and scrambling for first downs. Murray rushed for four touchdowns and threw for another 20 scores.

Mayfield didn’t open the 2018 campaign as the starter, but came in to give Cleveland a nice lift down the stretch. He tossed 27 touchdowns in just 13 games, playing with a level of confidence that helped the Browns move the ball down the field vertically. At that point, it seemed like he would be with Cleveland for many years to come.

Things got off to a bad start for Goff in the NFL. The Rams lost all seven of his starts during his rookie campaign, as he threw more interceptions than touchdowns. Los Angeles would hire Sean McVay as head coach ahead of his second NFL season, and Goff’s production would change for the better.

Winston essentially showed fans what type of NFL quarterback he was going to be right away. He threw for over 4,000 yards as a rookie with 22 touchdowns, but also tossed 15 picks. Winston’s proclivity to force the ball down the field has often resulted in spectacularly positive or negative results, without much in between.

Bleacher Report and many others labeled Luck as the “most sure thing NFL QB prospect since Peyton Manning.” He got off to a promising start, leading the Colts to an 11-5 record as a rookie. He also orchestrated seven game winning drivers in 2012, which proved to fans that the moments weren’t too big for him.

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Newton was a comet in his first NFL season. He threw for over 4,000 yards, and also ran for 706 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground. Bleacher Report went so far as to call it the best rookie season of all-time. They predicted that he would become one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the NFL, which is an expectation Newton would end up meeting.

Bradford won Rookie of the Year in 2010, throwing for 18 touchdowns. His numbers didn’t jump off the page, and the promise of what he could become never materialized. The former Heisman trophy winner would battle injuries throughout his NFL career, and bounced to four different teams in eight seasons.

Stafford walked into a difficult situation with the Lions in 2009. The franchise had come off a winless campaign in 2008, and didn’t have much going for it. Stafford threw 13 touchdowns to 20 interceptions as a rookie, which didn’t exactly lift the fanbase’s spirits. However, he would break out in his third season, throwing for 41 touchdowns.

Sports Illustrated named Russell as the biggest NFL draft bust since 1990. He got into four games as a rookie, and it didn’t go well, to put it mildly. According to The Score, Russell brought a large sum of money to Raiders training camp as a rookie and “made it rain money”. It was a first impression that perhaps foreshadowed the rest of his brief NFL career.

Most NFL fans who watched Smith play during his 14-year career might find it hard to believe that he threw for one touchdown and 11 interceptions as a rookie. Smith would eventually tell The Comeback that he had no business playing during his first NFL start. The 49ers were patient with him, and they would eventually be rewarded with better play under center.

The Giants decided to start Kurt Warner for the first nine games of the 2004 season, and eventually gave Manning the reigns. He got his feet wet even though New York wasn’t winning games. Manning would be front and center for a big turnaround in 2005, when the Giants went 11-5 and made the postseason.

Palmer was a prototypical pocket passer that Cincinnati was happy to have on the team in 2003. According to Sports Illustrated, the young player was told that he should try to avoid being drafted by the Bengals, but the former University of Southern California star wasn’t fazed by the concern. He showed flashes of potential as a rookie, and broke out in his second season.

Carr was the first pick for the expansion Texans franchise in 2002. To say that he was greeted rudely in the NFL was an understatement. He was sacked a league-leading 76 times in 2002, which put him in a bad spot from the very beginning. Somehow, Carr managed to play all 16 games despite taking such a beating.

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Fans of a certain age will remember the “Michael Vick” experience in Atlanta, but it took a little while to get going. Vick appeared in eight games in 2001, starting two of those contests. Falcons head coach Dan Reeves opted to go with veteran passer Chris Chandler for most of the season, who led Atlanta to a Super Bowl appearance in 1998.