The Caitlin Clark effect could cause a WNBA lockout

The WNBA has experienced unprecedented levels of attention and interest during the 2024 season, thanks in large part to the play and gravitas of Indiana Fever star Caitlin Clark. There could be trouble on the horizon, though, thanks to the very same meteoric rise that the league has experienced. All statistics are sourced by Basketball Reference.

It can be difficult for fans to wrap their heads around just how much of an effect Caitlin Clark has had on the popularity of the WNBA. According to Reuters, the WNBA recorded its highest average game viewership in 24 years.

According to Sports Media Watch, there were 23 regular season WNBA games that attracted more than one million viewers. Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever played in 20 of those contests.

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It wasn’t just the games that drew droves of eyeballs to TV and streaming screens. The 2024 WNBA Draft, Clark’s official introduction to the league, was also a huge draw. According to Yahoo Sports, it garnered 374 percent more viewers this year than it did in 2023. It was the most watched draft since 2004, when WNBA legend Diana Taurasi was selected.

As if this wasn’t enough, fans have delved into their wallets to buy Clark’s memorabilia. In August 2024, Yahoo Sports noted that the Fever reported a 1,193 percent increase in jersey sales from the same time in the prior year.

It’s often said that a rising tide lifts all boats, but this might force the WNBA to change the configuration of its marine vessels. The business structure of the league has dramatically changed.

The WNBA certainly struck while the brand was hot. In July 2024, Forbes and others reported that the league struck a $2.2 billion television deal with NBC, Amazon and Disney to broadcast their games. The contract runs for 11 years.

This will bolster the overall earning power of the WNBA, but the discussion around how much of the financial pie should be allocated to player salaries will be a hot-button topic. Forbes reported that WNBA players make around 10 percent of the league’s revenue, as reported in April 2014.

This is a massive difference with regard to the ratio agreed upon in the NBA, where players receive about 50 percent of league revenue, according to Forbes.

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While the WNBA’s stock is pointed in a positive direction, sports business analyst Joe Pompliano thinks this shift will cause strife, and potentially, a work stoppage, in the near term. He said on a podcast, “I feel like we are quickly heading to a scenario where there’s going to be a lockout in the WNBA.”

“I think the players just have a higher perception around their dollar value worth than the league is actually worth. If you look at the WNBA, attendance, viewership, merchandise sales, everything is up. They’re making a lot more money. TV rights, everything. But most don’t understand the dynamic of the NBA owning a large chunk of the business.”

Pompliano said, “And I think the players are going to have a really hard time dealing with that because they’re going on the road and seeing these sold-out arenas. The economics of the league just don’t give that opportunity to them.”

WNBA players association executive director Terri Jackson has wondered aloud whether the NBA is doing everything it can to get the WNBA to the next level. She told ESPN that the NBA is in control of the WNBA’s destiny in July 2024.

While Pompliano and Jackson have talked about the effect the NBA has behind the scenes, the reasoning behind muted player salary increases might fall on deaf ears in the WNBA. If the situation doesn’t improve enough for WNBA players, they might consider playing overseas for more money during the league year.

It’s going to be fascinating to see whether Pompliano’s prediction comes true, and how the sides try to navigate their way through an intriguing period in the league’s history.

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Caitlin Clark was a force to be reckoned with in her first WNBA season. She won Rookie of the Year, averaging 19 points, eight assists and five rebounds.