Unpacking the hidden pattern behind NFL coach hires

It’s much easier to part ways with a head coach than it is to shake up the roster in the NFL. It’s an old adage that coaches are hired to be fired, but it’s interesting to delve into what NFL front offices look for when they want to hit the reset button. The underlying expertise a team seeks in a new coach might be more obvious than anyone realized.

With very few exceptions, NFL franchises tend to hire a head coach with the opposite specialty as the one they just fired. For example, if a team parts ways with an offensive-minded head coach, there’s an excellent chance they’ll hire a defensive mind to replace him. The reverse has also been true.

Since the 1999 season, the Kansas City Chiefs have alternated between defensive and offensive-minded head coaches. Gunther Cunningham(defensive), Richard Vermeil (offensive), Herm Edwards(defensive), Todd Haley(offensive), Romeo Crennel(defensive), and Andy Reid(offensive) is a perfect example of this.

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Since 2000, the New Orleans Saints have also alternated in the same pattern. Jim Haslett (defensive) led the franchise for six seasons, before Sean Payton(offensive) took over. When Payton left the Saints to become a broadcaster, the team elevated incumbent defensive coordinator Dennis Allen to head coach.

The Browns’ shifting philosophy in head coaching hires has remained consistent. Since 2009, Cleveland has employed Eric Mangini (defensive), Pat Shurmur (offensive), Rob Chudzinski (offensive,), Mike Pettine (defensive), Hue Jackson(offensive), Gregg Williams (defensive), Freddie Kitchens (offensive) and Kevin Stefanski (offensive) at head coach.

While this pattern has been normalized in the NFL over many years, it’s possible that franchises will look at hiring differently moving forward. The talk of the league centers around younger, innovative offensive minds that put quarterbacks in the best position to succeed. The NFL may look in this direction more often to help bolster the play of passers.

The Philadelphia Eagles are an example of a team that stuck with an offensive-minded head coach in recent years, and the decision has paid off. After they let Doug Pederson go, the organization decided to hire Nick Sirianni. The latter has led Philadelphia to a Super Bowl, and has seemed to invigorate his team.

Every now and then, teams will tab a special teams coach as their head man. The Baltimore Ravens did that with John Harbaugh in 2008, who had been a special teams coordinator with the Philadelphia Eagles. The New York Giants brought in Joe Judge from the third side of the ball in 2020, with less than glowing returns.

It’ll be interesting to see what teams do during this coaching cycle. The Las Vegas Raiders might have to consider Antonio Pierce as a viable option, who greatly counters what the recently fired Josh McDaniels brought to the table. The Los Angeles Chargers may want a more offensive minded leader to replace Brandon Staley on the other side of the coin.