Does the NFL have an offense problem?

Following the completion of week nine, the NFL season has passed its halfway point. The elite teams are well-established and marching to the playoffs with abandon, behind that there is a mixture of mediocrity followed by some teams with a real talent problem.

Despite the old saying, “defense wins championships”, the reality is that offense is slightly more important. Bruins Sports Analytics studied this phenomenon and they concluded: “a higher fraction of the league's top 5 offenses has made the playoffs over the past 20 years than the league's top 5 defenses.”

Ultimately, Bruins Sports Analytics’ study found teams require both a good defense and good offense to win Super Bowls, but offense is key. And the key to a good offense, a good quarterback.

The NFL has a quarterback issue and has done so for some time. Outside of the top 10-15 guys, the talent level drops off a cliff. This year has seen players like Zach Wilson, Clayton Tune, and Tommy DeVito all play significant snaps. Without being outright insulting to these players, it’s almost impossible to compete consistently with these players.

An often under-discussed element of the talent issue is the conservative nature of the NFL in front offices. General Managers are very unwilling to take risks on quarterbacks that could take some time to develop, preferring to plug a hole with a retread whose ceiling is just high enough to keep the GM in their role for another year.

The 2023 NFL season hasn’t been a classic, with teams up and down the league struggling for fluency and defenses winning with a conservative style inspired by Vic Fangio and his refusal to give up big plays.

As Warren Sharp of Sharp Football writes, “there are far fewer touchdowns (less excitement) and far fewer points scored (less excitement). Scoring output (43.4 ppg) is down to pre-2010 rule change levels.”

Sharp continues by noting, “there are also more blowouts (less excitement) and fewer underdogs barking (less excitement). Underdogs are covering at a 44.8% rate, the worst rate we’ve seen in two decades (2003).”

Part of the issue lies in just how good some of the best teams in the league are. We see the Eagles trotting out Jalen Hurts, Devonta Smith, and A.J. Brown each week, whilst the 49ers have 5 offensive weapons that start on most other teams. At the same time, other teams are feeding on scraps, leading to an imbalanced league and games that are often over at half-time.

Offenses are struggling to score and levels we haven’t seen for some time. After week six of the NFL season, teams had collectively scored 397 TDs, at the same point in the 2020 and 2021 seasons, there had been well over 500. stats from Sharp Football.

Perhaps this is all not an offensive issue, but more a result of defenses improving and playing a stifling style. Zone defense is being played at previously unseen levels, often used to slow down the quarterback’s processing power and allow pass-rushers to get into the backfield.

CBS Sports have reported: “This is the highest sack rate (7.1%) we've seen through Week 7 since 2000 (7.2%).” Brady Quinn added, “I think offensive line play, because of the cut down of offseason programs and hitting, has also suffered due to that, which has obviously played a role in offensive production, running the football, the passing game.”

For many football viewers, they enjoy defensive battles. A grind-it-out, physical matchup is old-school football and certainly shouldn’t be diminished. But ultimately if the NFL is to continue growing at its extraordinary rate, big plays will be a big part of the appeal.

Despite the downturn in scoring, games in the NFL have actually got less competitive this season. Per CBS, “The average margin of victory (11.8 points per game) is the third highest through Week 7 in the last decade.”

Just as the high-flying offenses of recent years have forced a reaction from defensive coordinators, this return to early-2000s level of offenses will force offensive innovation.

Perhaps we will see more teams return to a form of the power run game if teams insist on playing two deep safeties and light boxes up front. Maybe Mike McDaniels Dolphins’ offense is the blueprint for the future, or perhaps the next wave of college QBs help to lift the level across the board. Caleb Williams and Drake Maye certainly have the talent to help!