NFL 2024 Season: The teams most likely to be picking number one overall in 2025

The NFL is a constantly changing landscape of good and bad teams, with so much of the differential being who your starting quarterback is. The best way to get a QB is in the draft, the only way (usually) to be in position to draft a QB is by being bad, so we thought it would be a good idea to take a look at which teams are most likely to be picking number one overall in the 2025 draft.

The Pats have the worst odds to win the Super Bowl in 2024, which doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll be picking number one in 2025, but they are by no means a good team and are set to struggle this season. First-time head coach Jerod Mayo has potential, but the roster lacks elite talent and after trading Matthew Judon to the Falcons, they look in full rebuild mode.

The Pats drafted Drake Maye in the 2024 draft, who we had as our number 2 quarterback. Per his head coach, Jerod Mayo, “He's absolutely getting better,” as training camp and preseason progresses. If Maye is as good as advertised, the Pats will contend again soon. They still might want to be scouting some of the elite pass rushers projected to go in the top five in next year’s draft…

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Per CBS Sports, the Giants’ over/under on the year is 6.5, not that we encourage it, but if you’re a betting person, that under looks pretty tasty. Daniel Jones unfortunately stinks and despite the addition of Malik Nabers in the draft, the offense as a whole doesn’t look good enough to contend. The losses of Saquon Barkley and Xavier McKinney in free agency will hurt them too.

Brian Daboll showcased his ability to coach a team to wins despite a lack of talent in 2023, so maybe we’re underestimating this team. Elsewhere, their defensive line is looking promising with the addition of Brian Burns via trade. Malik Nabers is a stud and will enjoy catching passes from Jaxson Dart in 2025…

CBS Sports has the Raiders as their fifth-worst team in 2024, and we feel like that’s about right. There’s a chance they stumble their way to 8–9 wins with a talented defense and a head coach in Antonio Pierce who very obviously has the respect of his players. We just can’t see how their offense succeeds with Gardner Minshew as their starter against what CBS Sports has as the eight-hardest schedule in the league.

Antonio Pierce earned the trust of his locker room last season and has been able to navigate a tricky situation with Davante Adams, per Marca. Otherwise, this team is in desperate need of a quarterback, and not an Aidan O’Connell or Gardner Minshew, but a real, franchise-leading signal caller. They may well get that opportunity in 2025. Welcome to Vegas, Carson Beck!

We never want to be too negative about individual players given the amount of work they put in to reach to the NFL, but the Panthers' roster is a who’s who of mediocre players with very few names standing out as legit talents. Bryce Young has to play better than he did last year, even if the circumstances weren’t in his favor.

Per Pro Football Focus, Baker Mayfield played like a top-10 QB over the final four weeks of the 2024 season, which suggests new Panthers head coach Dave Canales knows what he’s doing. Bryce Young’s talent isn’t in question, but the obvious size concerns are still there and the roster around him won’t make it easy.

Will Levis is certainly exciting to watch, but we remain entirely unconvinced by his ability to be an NFL QB. Per PFF, he finished the 2024 season with 16 big-time throws and 14 turnover-worth throws and never rating above a 70.0 in their metrics. PFF isn’t the be-all and end-all, but those stats are worrisome. Still, it’ll be a fun team to watch lose 12 games…

Honestly, the Titans could find themselves in a difficult spot over the next few years with an expensive and aging receiving corps of Calvin Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins and a defense that has some talent but is by no means elite. They need Levis to rapidly improve, otherwise, they could be in trouble for a few years.

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