Ranked: The NFL teams with a real chance to win the Super Bowl

December is make-or-break time in the NFL, with all-important playoff rankings up for stake. As always, there are plenty of pretenders in the NFL, so we have tried to filter those out and just focus on the teams we believe have a real chance to win the Super Bowl.

The Texans have been dealt a bad hand in 2024, with injuries to their wide receiving corps leaving them lacking pass-catchers at times. With Nico Collins back from injury, we could see an offensive explosion down the stretch. The Texans also boast one of the best defenses in football, with a dominant defensive line that has already produced 42 sacks this season, per ESPN.

Per SumerSports, the Texans' offense is ranked 19th in EPA/Play, which simply isn't good enough considering the investment in that unit in the offseason. Rarely do teams win the Super Bowl without an elite offense, which the Texans simply don't have right now.

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The Packers haven't played to their full ability yet in 2024 with SumerSports' composite rankings having them with the 11th-best offense and 13th-best defense in the NFL so far this season. We have a feeling Jordan Love is set to get hot, and as we saw last year, if he does, he's nearly unstoppable. Sunday's win against the Niners showcased the best of Green Bay, more performances like that and this team will be expecting to make a deep playoff run.

The Packers have a couple of weaknesses that could cost them, the first being Jordan Love, who has thrown too many interceptions for us. If he doesn't get hot, this offense isn't good enough to win them games. Defensively, they are only middle of the pack, which is fine if the offense is firing, but it's not a good enough unit to win them games.

We debated whether the Steelers should be on this list at all, but ultimately, they match up well against any team in football and currently sit third in the AFC at 9-3. They aren't a dominant offense, but they are playing at a good enough level that their defense can win games by themselves, just look at their win over Baltimore.

The Steelers lack elite weapons on their offense, making points scoring a potential challenge come playoff time. Their run game is turgid, with both Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren averaging a meagre 4 YPC, or less, which doesn't fill us with confidence when we get to January.

If we had written this just two weeks ago, we might have had the Ravens as our favorite Super Bowl, but a close win against the Bengals and a loss to the Steelers has given us pause for thought. Offensively, this is the best unit in the league, and by distance, they just can't stop anyone defensively at the moment.

The Ravens' secondary simply hasn't been good enough this year, with teams able to pass all over them. Per ESPN, they have given up the most passing yards by any team in the NFL. Part of that is because they have had leads and forced opponents to throw, but it is also due to bad play. We thought they might struggle with Mike Macdonald's departure, and so far we have been proven correct.

The Eagles have the 5th-best offensive EPA/Play and the 4th-best defensive EPA/Play in the NFL, per SumerSports. This is a legit contender based around a nearly unstoppable run game and a defense that is clamping teams each and every week.

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Jalen Hurts is a good player, but he isn't a great player, which is showcased by the Eagles only ranking 13th EPA/Pass Play despite having one of the best overall offenses in football. Hurts' legs are a threat, and a key part of the offense's identity, but can he be relied upon as a passer consistently? We're not sure, he's shown it in the past, but he's looked shaky at times this year.

The Bills are, once again, in contention for the Super Bowl, and it's hard to see a reason why they won't be one of the last remaining teams in the AFC when it's all said and done. Their victory over the Chiefs gives them a chance at the number one seed, and if the AFC has to go through Buffalo, we wouldn't bet against them.

It seems silly to write this, given we have tried to be analytical with our approach elsewhere, but could the weight of history be a genuine mental block for the Bills? So often in recent years, they have been among the best teams in football only to stumble in a game they had to reason to stumble in. If they can remove any confidence issues, this becomes a scary team.

We know the Lions have played like the best team in football so far this season, and their record and point differential and talent level are so high, we should probably have them as our number one. However, winning is a habit and not one the Lions have much experience in the playoffs. Would we expect any team to beat them in Detroit, probably not, but that could be their biggest issue.

There aren't many obvious weaknesses on this Lions team, with both their offense and defense among the best units in the league. Our only concern is how they get on in the playoffs after a crushing defeat last year in the NFC Championship game. Playoff football is a different beast and Detroit needs to overcome that.

The Chiefs haven't looked like their dominant best this season, and only rank 8th and 19th respectively in offensive and defensive EPA/Play, per SumerSports. We just don't see how anyone can doubt Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs at this point. We know that when the lights are brightest, he's the best player in football, maybe ever.

Despite having a good defense, they have struggled to pressure opposing QBs, ranking 15th in pressure rate, per Statmuse, and near the bottom of the league with just 24 sacks so far. Chris Jones can win games by himself on the inside at times, but he isn't getting the support he needs currently.

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