Super Bowl LIX: Which teams can realistically win?

The NFL season is almost upon us, everyone up and down the league thinks their team is destined to be lifting the Lombardi come February 9th 2025, except maybe Raiders fans (sorry), so we're going to pour some ice-cold reality-water on that optimism by taking a look at which teams could realistically win Super Bowl LIX. We left the Cowboys off, because, well, they're the Cowboys...

The Chiefs are actually second favorites to win the Super Bowl per FanDuel, but we can’t see ourselves backing anyone else until a game clock ticks to zero and the Chiefs have lost. Last year was a down year for KC, finishing fifth in overall DVOA per FTN Fantasy, yet they won anyway. They’re a juggernaut, and even the various off-field incidents won’t phase them.

The Ravens are third-favorites to win the Super Bowl per FanDuel and could regress this season having lost the Shanahan-tree’s Kryptonite defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald. We just struggle to see a world where the Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry-led offense doesn’t score 30+ points weekly. If they do that, they’ll be tough to stop.

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At some point, the Bills are surely going to get over the hump, right? Per FTN Fantasy, in the previous two seasons, they have finished 1st and 3rd in the DVOA rankings, at some point, that little piece of luck they need will fall their way. Their lack of receivers is an issue, but Josh Allen is so good it may not matter.

The Niners’ offense ranked first in DVOA and first in EPA/play last season, per NFELO. Offenses win championships in the NFL, except in the case of the Niners, who have been unable to overcome the Chiefs in two Super Bowls. There is a world in which they lose both Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk next year (maybe Aiyuk leaves before week one) and need some time to rebuild, meaning their window could be closing.

Despite having the fourth-best odds on FanDuel, we aren’t sold on the Bengals’ chances at a Super Bowl this year. With both Trey Hendrickson and Tee Higgins requesting trades per CBS Sports, there could be some resentment towards ownership in the locker room. Talent-wise, they can compete with anyone, but we need to see what pieces they have on the field first.

Will Saquon Barkley be good? Will Bryce Huff replace Hassan Reddick’s production? Will Jalen Carter make the leap? The Eagles need to answer all of these questions, and fast, before we give them any real hope of making a run for the Lombardi. Jalen Hurts is surrounded by studs and the defense should be better, but can Nick Sirianni turn things around?

The Lions are ranked fifth in Super Bowl odds by FanDuel, but there is something about them, we can’t get behind. Jared Goff is the highest-paid QB in football, but he’s not close to being the best. The same could be said for Amon-Ra St. Brown, who recently signed a new $30 m per year deal to make him the second-highest paid WR in the league, per Over The Cap. A good team for sure, just not one we trust… yet.

Surprise! Are we jumping the gun by a year here? Maybe, but we really believe in Mike MacDonald as a coach and think he could turn the Seahawks’ defense into a monster in year one. Devon Witherspoon and Riq Woolen could become an elite CB tandem, and there are too many offensive weapons to mention.

The Jets finished last year with the 25th-ranked DVOA in the league, however, they had the third-best defense, per DVOA, in the NFL according to FTN Fantasy. That just shows how awful the offense was with Zach Wilson under center. If Aaron Rodgers performs, this team has a real shot. They might want to resolve the Haason Reddick situation before they take on the 49ers in week one, though.

We debated between the Packers and the Texans for this final spot, but ultimately we believe in Houston a little more. Texans’ GM Nick Caserio seemingly understands their window is open, signing short-term impact players like Danielle Hunter and Stefon Diggs this offseason. When a franchise moves together in one direction like this, it can be hard to stop.

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