Who will win La Liga: Barcelona or Real Madrid?

At the start of the 2022-2023 season, it seemed clear that the top spot in La Liga would go to one of two teams – Real Madrid and FC Barcelona. There are of course 18 other teams in the competition, but that doesn't seem to matter in this era of the game.

16 matches from both teams were enough to confirm this prediction. Barcelona (41 points) and Real Madrid (38 points) dominated the first third of La Liga, with 48 points at stake.

But of course, it is an atypical season with a World Cup that took place in November and December. The competition resumed in January after more than a month's hiatus.

So, who will win La Liga: Barcelona or Real Madrid? Hard to say, but it is possible to analyze some facts and data to try and come to a conclusion.

FC Barcelona was already eliminated from the Champions League before New Year's, making La Liga their sole focus for the rest of the season. That means that Barça will of course be more committed to the national competition, but that also entails greater pressure.

Real Madrid, in turn, is still participating in the main European competition, although it will not play again until February 21, 2023. 'Los Blancos' will then compete against Liverpool in the first leg of the round of 16, which gives the Madrilenians some time to focus on La Liga.

But for that decisive double confrontation with the Reds, Real, as the reigning European champion, must first compete at the World Cup for clubs. That tournament will be held from February 1 to 11.

Fortunately for Real Madrid, the World Cup for clubs takes place in Morocco, which significantly reduces travel time.

Meanwhile, Barcelona will attack the Europa League for the second year in a row against a giant like Manchester United.

Depending on how Real Madrid and Barcelona fare in Europe, their chances in La Liga will rise or fall. A premature elimination would see La Liga as the only major prize to be won.

What do the bookies think? For William Hill, Barcelona (1.50) is the favourite just after the World Cup for clubs, followed by Real Madrid (2.62).

To put it in perspective: if you bet 1 euro on Atlético Madrid, the bookmakers' third favorite, you will receive 51 euros per euro bet, because 'Los Rojiblancos' are already thirteen points behind leader FC Barcelona and ten on Real Madrid.

On the sporting front, it is clear that Barcelona will be heavily dependent on Lewandowski's impressive goalscoring streak. The Pole scored 13 goals in 15 games and played a vital role in Barca's top spot.

At the same time, Ter Stegen has found his best form. Barcelona conceded just 6 goals in 16 games and the defense was fundamental in the successful first third of La Liga.

It is unclear how Ansu Fati's physical fitness is. The attacker appears to have yet to regain his pre-injury form, which is a bitter pill to swallow for Barça, who see his number 10 as a key player in their short- and medium-term project.

Pedri, Dembélé and De Jong will determine the performance of the Blaugrana in the domestic competition. The French attacker started the competition very strongly.

And then there is the departure of Gerard Piqué from Barcelona. It remains to be seen how the loss of one of their captains in the middle of the season affects the side and the players.

At Real Madrid, Vinicius Junior and Federico Valverde were the two most striking players in the first part of La Liga.

After Benzema's retirement, it was Rodrygo who took his place, and although his aim is very high, the Brazilian still has a long way to go to reach his captain's level. The youngsters of Real Madrid are imploding while they are still young.

Real Madrid seems to have the most problems in defence. Despite names like Militao, Rudiger and Alaba, Real takes one goal per game in La Liga.

In addition, Courtois performs less well and no longer looks like a player who impressed last season. At the World Cup, however, he was again the top goalkeeper who was decisive in winning some prizes months ago.

At the moment it seems difficult to predict who will win La Liga. The Clásico between the two teams on March 19 at Camp Nou will be crucial as it is clear that both teams will drop a few points during the season.

The duel between Xavi and Ancelotti flares up again in 2023, and this time without a World Cup in between. That being said, may the best team win, or the team that deserves it the most.